There is a lot of fear about what will happen on February 10, 2009 - the day provisions of the Consumer Product Safety Improvement Act go into effect, and the day many in the small-business community are now calling National Bankruptcy Day. (Read this Christian Science Monitor article if you have any doubt about what's at stake here.)

As the CPSC muddles through these issues in the weeks before they drop the "Feb-bomb" on the entire children's products industry, many of us have lost confidence in their ability to work with Congress to make the needed adjustments that will offer the best consumer protection available under a saner set of rules. Instead, they have elected to selectively interpret sections of the Act and offer minor concessions that do little good. Exempting a series of natural materials, for example, comes with the stipulation that they not be painted or dyed, even with substances proven to be of little or no risk to consumers (plant-based pigments, beeswax). Reassuring resellers that they are not required to test products comes with the warning that they will be liable for big fines if a product they sell is discovered to violate the standard.

We'd like to go ahead and make some predictions about what the CPSIA will do to U.S. businesses and consumer choice in 2009, in addition to helping protect children from lead and phthalates, if the law stands as currently written. These predictions are offered in the hopes that any we'd like to avoid could be avoided, especially if enough consumers take action.

The mass market

• Fewer choices from fewer brands. The big companies in infant care, children's toys, and apparel will begin reducing the variety of "styles" of individual products, and cut some less-profitable lines entirely rather than pay for redundant testing. This means a single model of sippy cup will suddenly come in two color choices instead of six, a pacifier in one style instead of four, and a lunch box in two licensed-character lines, one for boys and one for girls, instead of a half-dozen different characters plus a couple of generic models. Your local big-box store's sleepwear section will have half the number of fabrics, and you'll suddenly have trouble finding that yellow or green onesie to welcome a baby whose gender isn't known, and go with white instead. Brands that produce some kids' products but don't rely on them exclusively (high-end designers, furniture makers, and small companies with a range of small-batch products) may abandon the children's product market completely. Parent companies will shuffle their holdings. Startups will thin out, with fewer new entrants into the market, even than in past periods of recession.


• The 8-to-12 toy gap. Although it is illegal to claim that a product intended for children is only intended for adults, a major gray area exists in the 8-to-12-year-old market. New products that would traditionally be marketed as "8 and up" will suddenly be labeled as "13 and up" or "over 12." The CPSC will challenge a few of these claims, but only the most egregious cases, because those are the only fights they can win. Other companies may choose to strengthen divisions offering products for older children at the expense of those for younger children. Either way, parents will face fewer choices as well as diminished rights for those they buy for "off-label" use.


• Increased prices. Safety costs money and is worth our investment as consumers. But companies, at least initially, will be more concerned with protecting profits than competing on price. Depending on company strategy, these increases may be gradual or may hit in about six months.


• The green purge. Consumers and retailers will remain confused regarding which product types can still be sold from current stock, and for how long; as a result, more products will showcase non-plastic materials, undergo stricter voluntary materials testing (Oeko-Tex), and promote themselves as "free" of banned chemicals. Book publishers will shy away specifically from synthetic covers, vinyl infant books, and integrated toy-book gimmicks. Meanwhile, vast quantities of unsold children's merchandise will be exported or destroyed. Companies doing business in the developing world will dump products there at cut-rate prices. Those that don't will send them directly into landfills, where they will slowly leach their banned substances into the environment. Non-compliant products will be retired as quietly as possible to minimize customer complaints and attempted returns.


• Booby traps. Manufacturers who believed the CPSIA had no bearing on their product area will have a rude awakening. Congress will pass new laws to exclude them.

The used market

• Online reselling will get safer. eBay, Craigslist, and other peer-to-peer sales services will see fewer listings of recalled items as top sellers are investigated and a few prosecuted, resulting in an overall increased safety level for cribs, high chairs, and toys offered through such services.


• Online swapping will get more secretive. Many small and hobbyist forums for swapping between parents currently permit the viewing of posts by outsiders. Most of these will go fully private, often in response to requests from members, to help decrease participants' chances of being targeted for prosecution. Moderators will develop new methods for vetting members or require referrals for new members.


• Thrift store profiling. Resellers are not required to test products, but are liable for the products they sell. This will likely result in product "profiling" strategies that vary wildly from store to store, but products obviously made from softened PVC (backpacks, play yards) will become difficult to find used and will go directly into landfills without being reused or passed on. Painted and plastic toys by unknown brands will also be broadly rejected. Few, if any, will conduct any testing.

The handmade and craft market

• The handmade industry will contract and undergo a broad cultural shift. Consumer options and volume will both be significantly reduced as work-at-home artisans are forced to choose between going out of business and flaunting a law they feel is unjust. Those who stop selling will tend to be older, and have more to lose from the risk of prosecution - homes, assets - while those who remain will tend to be younger, and will absorb the new business while pressing the "handmade movement" into more pointed political service. The most active agitators will help articulate the movement's goals using techniques from edge communities and will improve their skills at drawing media attention, which will protect them from prosecution to some degree. DC-area crafters will hold crafting sit-ins at public hearings and agency meetings. Sales of Civil Disobedience will rise. Those who leave may find other work, or may wait, and even produce goods, while they wait for a fix.


• The mass media will speak up about the issue. An ill-informed spike in television news coverage will miss much of the point and overhype the rest. Oprah will get involved, Martha might, and when they do, they'll nail it.

A few questions for you, any of which you're welcome to respond to in the comments:

• What do you think of the planned CPSIA regulations?


• What do you think of the CPSC's handling of the public concern and confusion surrounding these issues?


• Do you have any predictions to add to the list, or any of ours you think won't come to pass?


• What have you done, or could you still do, to make an impact on this issue?

Photos, from top, by Hey Het, photophonic, and tegurity. ZRecs.com cover image by phlora. All photos shared via Flickr.